I posted about the 10th anniversary of the Christchurch Earthquake, but there was another notable earthquake anniversary recently…the 50th anniversary of the 1971 San Fernando earthquake. Khaled Chowdhury from the US Army Corps of Engineers posted this perspective on LinkedIn.
Some new research on the Newmark Displacement Method for earthquake-induced landslides indicates that the method may be on the unconservative side. The Landslide Blog provides a short summary of the paper by Li et al. (2018) that was recently […]
Released: 4/14/2008 12:02:15 PM
California has more than a 99% chance of having a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake within the next 30 years, according scientists using a new model to determine the probability of big quakes.
The likelihood of a major quake of magnitude 7.5 or greater in the next 30 years is 46%-and such a quake is most likely to occur in the southern half of the state.
[Editor] At Left: Figure 1. The colors on this California map represent the UCERF probabilities of having a nearby earthquake rupture (within 3 or 4 miles) of magnitude 6.7 or larger in the next 30 years. As shown in the table, the chance of having such an event somewhere in California exceeds 99%. The 30-year probability of an even more powerful quake of magnitude 7.5 or larger is about 46%. [/Editor]